shortcuts

If the key can be found without the statistics, the item measures test-wiseness. Every probe here runs after the options are re-shuffled with a seeded generator, so position bias cannot pass for leakage.
Probes
ProbeThe answerer seesChance
Option-only (LLM)the four options; the stem is withheld0.25
Context-removed (LLM)the final question sentence with digits masked, and the options0.25
Option-only lexical modeloption text and within-item shallow features; cross-validated by construct0.25
Heuristic solversoptions (one also reads the stem)0.25
Stem-only (LLM)the stem only; free response mapped to an option

can a model find the key without the question?

test-taking heuristics

Expected accuracy with ties split evenly, so a heuristic never wins a tie it did not earn.

position bias and mc inflation